“Heavy snow” possible for Calgary this week

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Warming up in the high teens over the weekend is expected to give way to cooler temperatures, rain and showers starting Monday.

Environment Canada meteorologist Rob Griffith said a “very pleasant” weekend led to dry and warm temperatures across much of Alberta through an upper ridge flowing west.

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Although it will be mostly sunny, with a high of 15 degrees and a low of 0 degrees, a southwesterly sweep down the prairies will bring a 60 percent chance of rain to the Calgary area Monday afternoon, Griffith said.

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With less precipitation and cooler temperatures, he said, “It's going to be a lot more difficult to deal with what's going to happen next — we could get snow in Calgary on Tuesday.”

About 5 to 10 centimeters of snow is expected in Calgary on Tuesday, with more to the west of the city, with 15 to 25 centimeters possible in places like Bragg Creek.

“This storm is going to be very convective, so it's going to have a lot of snow as it moves through,” Griffith said.

Griffith noted that forecasts are still uncertain because exact rainfall amounts are difficult to determine. Most surfaces can be warm enough for snow to melt on contact, he said.

Fluctuations in conditions and temperatures are normal for this time of year, especially in southern Alberta and near the Rocky Mountains, Griffith explained.

“Averages have limits.”

Drought, rainfall is unlikely to cause drought or wildfire scale

Because of the drought, many thunderstorms occur higher in the atmosphere, Griffith said.

“The rain is coming from a very high level, it's dry, sometimes it doesn't even make it to the ground – but the thunderstorms are still happening,” he said.

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Lightning can strike the ground and spark fires, and dry conditions increase the risk.

The province is heading into what some call “spring slump,” a dry period from late April to early May when snow melts and trees absorb moisture.

Alberta's wildfires placed the entire province's forest protection zone under a minimum forest advisory earlier this week, citing dry conditions.

Last year, more than 1,000 Alberta wildfires burned nearly 22,000 square kilometers across the province, more than five times the five-year average.

The 2023 wildfire season was Canada's worst on record, burning more than 15 million hectares across the country and forcing more than 230,000 people from their homes.

Alberta's 1,088 wildfires destroyed habitat for endangered species last year and will change the composition of the province's forests for decades to come, according to a report by the Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute.

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Griffith believes El Niño's warm and dry conditions are waning, and said June or August could see a shift toward La Niña, which typically brings heavy rain to western Canada.

Total precipitation for Calgary from September 2023 to March 2024 was 116.8 millimeters, or 75 percent of the normal 155.5 mm. He said that although these numbers are dry, they are statistically normal.

According to Griffith, the average monthly precipitation in Alberta is the highest in June at 94 mm and the lowest in January at 9.4 mm.

When it comes to drought or fire, he said, one warm, dry weekend — or a patch of precipitation — won't tip the scales one way or the other.

“It all adds up in the end, right? Any system that brings rainfall will help, but a one-off won't make a huge difference.”

Preparations are underway as the province announced the start of the wildfire season this year, 10 days earlier on February 20.

— With files from Postmedia and The Canadian Press

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