Red Deer at 1 Million? Daniel Smith dreams of a new Alberta metropolis

There is big thinking. There is really big or even really big thinking here.

But I don't know how much truth I need to get Prime Minister Daniel Smith's words about the Red Deer right.

He wants to see the population increase tenfold. Approx 106,000 today up to a million inhabitants.

He won't say it outright, but the premier dreams of a city that needs more hospitals than just the $1.8 billion the province is spending on expansion. This Gasoline Alley was not located in the southern end of the city, but in several new suburbs that pushed many kilometers to the south and in other directions.

University of Red Deer? Why not two public universities like Edmonton, a million-person city, or three like Calgary?

Why doesn't Red Deer have an LRT system like other cities of a million people?

Or why…nothing reasonable? Is it something that local politicians and boosters in Central Alberta communities are taking seriously instead of thinking about the massive infrastructure demands of capturing such incredible growth?

“Seems like a big leap, doesn't it?” says Cindy Jefferies, a Red Deer consultant.

From medium size to mega size

Smith's dream of a million-person Red Deer is not a one-time thing. He's gone public about it twice in the past few weeks.

The first was on his radio call-in show on March 16, when he justified making the redevelopment of a central city hospital a priority.

“With Red Deer being such a growing hub, I'm calling for Red Deer to be our next million-person city – they need to have a full-service hospital in central Alberta.”

(Or maybe three or four.)

He brought it up again a few weeks later at a United Conservative Party fundraiser in the city.

“Red Deer is growing at a rapid pace. I'm asking your advice to make Red Deer our next million-person city. Because if you have a population base like that, it makes sense to suddenly bring it through the corridor. To connect this corridor from Calgary to Red Deer and on to Edmonton passenger rail.

Has it been a few years?!

The prime minister did not say how many years or decades he was thinking. But it wasn't the first time he aggressively hit the multiply button on his Alberta calculator.

In a televised address and throne speech last fall, the premier said his government is preparing to double Alberta's population to 10 million by 2050, up from three million previously. provincial officials predict province takes in the middle of the century.

Smith's approach to Red Deer expansion is even more aggressive. Let's play with the spreadsheets and think how fast the Red Deer can reach this milestone.

Published by real estate firm Colliers growth forecasts last year for the city of Red Deer.
Its average growth scenario assumes a population growth of 1.76% annually. At this rate, Red Deer will hit the one million mark in 2151 – Smith's 180th birthday.

In the high scenario, red deer grow at an annual clip of 2.28 percent and reach 2122.

Not fast enough, you say?

What if Red Deer experienced the same 4.4 per cent growth that the entire province saw repeatedly last year?

In this scenario, Red Deer would welcome its millionth resident in 2075, or about 13 provincial elections from now.

Faster yet? Ridiculous speed?

OK. Calgary's Airdrie bedrooms have grown more than 10 percent in recent years, but not consistently.

With continued growth of 10 per cent, unprecedented in Alberta for long, Red Deer will reach a seven-digit population in 2046 and will no doubt face staggering growth pressures along the way.

But the reality of the current red deer is that the current hospital is worn out and a new regional hospital is needed. The city has experienced below-average growth in recent years, according to the same Colliers report.

They're trying to work on that, Jefferies says, how to replace the oil services sector that was moved north during the drilling.

“We haven't found the next thing for red deer yet,” he says.

High-speed rail connectivity could be a game-changer, the councilor reasons. It allows Red Deerians to live there every day while commuting to Edmonton or Calgary for work, giving it the added luxury of bedrooms that big-city neighbors enjoy.

Exit the station

Of course, the railroad dream may have helped Smith publish millions. Lawrence Lee, another Red Deer city councillor, was in Edmonton with local politicians last fall, where Danielle Smith's startling idea may have originated.

Lee spoke with the premier about Red Deer and economic development. Smith also met with the developer of the Edmonton-Calgary high-speed rail idea — and, Lee recalled, the two discussions came close, and Smith suggested that Red Deer would be Alberta's next million-person city.

According to Lee, if all the right elements fall into place first, a four percent increase in Red Deer is possible, maybe five. High-speed rail, a massive expansion of the city's airport, a local industrial boom, and roads, water lines, schools, and more to accommodate all the new residents. large-scale infrastructure expansion.

Guess which political pundit should come up with this money?

“Because you want to grow as much as you want to a million people,” Lee says. “But it's very difficult when you don't have the resources and you're not prepared.”

The premier is scheduled to meet with Red Deer council later this month. Lee expects the million-person ambition to emerge, as well as the city's project wish list long-term plans toward the top of that mountain.

There may be a detour for red deer, Lee said. Because Edmonton and Calgary have them.

Oh, Deer

However, some dreams can be so big that not everyone is interested.

When the prime minister made a call to a million people at a UCP dinner in Red Deer, the proposal received a standing ovation — nowhere near the reaction of the hospital expansion or the pushback in Ottawa.

“A lot of people love red deer, no matter what size,” says Jefferies. “I'm not sure if they want to live in such a big city, or if it's something they haven't really considered.”

In 1946, Calgarians may not have thought of a million people, and their city had grown to over 100,000. Filled by a series of oil booms, Cowtown would reach that level in about 60 years.

Imagine the city at that time. The University of Calgary was still 20 years away.

The developed city stood barely west of present-day Crowchild Trail and did not extend south of 40th Avenue. The communities now sit along 210th Ave.

The Calgary suburb of Airdrie has more than tripled in population in 20 years, while Chestermere has grown 10-fold between 1996 and 2016.

But it's easier to grow from a village on a summer lake to a small town that relies on the convenience of a metropolis. It's quite another to go from a regional, medium-sized city to a member of Canada's five-to-seven-city million dollar club (depending on how you count).

Perhaps no city in the industrialized world is more prepared for a quantum leap in tenfold growth than NASA's exploration of plans for a Pluto colony.

A Colliers report suggests a red deer population of between 131,000 and 158,294 by 2041, and its city council is working on a growth strategy through 2050; Forward-thinking but manageable, the tallest building in the city is currently 12 stories high.

Smith has shown a preference for large round numbers. A million in Red Deer. Ten million in Alberta.

If he's serious about these numbers, those ring roads and high-speed rail lines should be ready (relatively) soon.