Nick Robertson's future with Maple Leafs – Hockey Writers – Toronto Maple Leafs

As the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs begin, there has been much debate as to whether Nick Robertson should be on the Toronto Maple Leafs roster. Before that debate, let's take a look at Robertson's career thus far.

Growing with maple leaves by Nick Robertson

Robertson has been with the Maple Leafs organization since he was drafted 52nd overall in the second round of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. It's five years. However, through the 2023–24 season, Robertson played 35 games with the Maple Leafs and 57 games with the Toronto Marlies of the American Hockey League (AHL) over four seasons. He has missed more games than he has played due to multiple injuries. For example, in the 2022/23 season, he played only 15 games with the Maple Leafs and two with the Marlies.

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At the start of the 2023-24 season, Robertson's main goal was to make it through the season injury-free. From the team's perspective, they needed to figure out what Robertson had. His entry-level contract is up at the end of this season, and so is his waiver wire. Robertson needed to prove to the Maple Leafs that he could stay healthy and play in the NHL.

As far as health issues go, Robertson has been injury free this season. He played 53 games in the big leagues and nine in the AHL. Robertson played 53 games, scored 13 goals and had 12 assists for 25 points. He did this while averaging 11:20 TOI per game.

Will Robertson score more goals if he plays more?

If we project his goals and points over an 82-game season, he'll total 39 points with 20 goals and 19 assists. That doesn't take into account his low ice time. A middle-six striker usually lasts about 15 minutes per game. That's 24% more ice time than Robertson averaged this season. Sometimes more ice time means more difficult ice time, so you can't say if a certain player gets X amount of extra ice time, he's going to score X points. However, if Robertson averages 15 minutes per game, it's safe to assume he could score 25 goals and 48 points in a season.

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If the main questions Robertson needs to answer are whether he stays healthy and belongs in the NHL, the answer is yes to both questions.

What about Robertson's place next season?

Back to the question of his role in the playoffs. Like it or not, there is one more factor to consider. Unlike his brother Jason, who stood 3-foot-3 and 200 pounds, Nick was not blessed with size. He is only 5-foot-9 and 175 pounds. While Knick has stayed healthy during the regular season, he will have to prove he can do it in the playoffs when the going gets tough. There's also the perception, rightly or wrongly, that a smaller, lighter player can be a liability on defense. Robertson needs to overcome any prejudice against smaller players. We know he can score, but can he defend?

So what can fans expect from Game 1 of the playoffs? We're guessing he won't be in Game One. Instead, we believe the Maple Leafs will give as much size and physicality as possible to the first game against the Florida Panthers. If someone is pushing around, the Maple Leafs want to be the pusher, not the pusher. There's also compensation for last season's second-round draft pick from Florida's Sam Bennett for a pass over Matthew Knees.

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That doesn't mean Robertson can't find his way into the lineup in the postseason. The Stanley Cup playoffs are the toughest in all of professional sports. Sometimes you need a healthy player who can attack. If the Maple Leafs go deep into the postseason, we'd be surprised if Robertson doesn't have a chance to play at some point.

What will happen to Robertson after this season?

What about Robertson and his future this postseason?

The Maple Leafs are in for a major crisis next season. With William Nylander and Auston Matthews starting new deals and John Tavares and Mitch Marner having another year left on their deals, the Maple Leafs will need players like Robertson. Robertson is a non-arbitration RFA. Toronto will hold the cards while negotiating Robertson's next deal.

Given his past and potential, we could see Robertson sign a one- or possibly two-year “show me” deal with the Maple Leafs. It also helps the Maple Leafs with their cap situation for the 2025-26 season.

If the Maple Leafs and Robertson play their cards right, Robertson could become an important player for the franchise. That said, if the franchise doesn't believe he can improve on his 200-foot game, he could become trade fodder.

(Note: I would like to thank longtime Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan's Facebook profile can be found here.)