What we learned from the investigation of foreign interference in elections

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OTTAWA — If one thing is clear from the public inquiry into foreign interference, it's that China tried to interfere in the 2019 and 2021 elections.

But the evidence is murky as to whether this has been successful. In the past 10 days of fact-finding hearings, which concluded Friday and included testimony from politicians, bureaucrats and representatives of several intelligence and security agencies, we learned:

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Who tries to interfere?

Canada's spy agency has identified China as the “most significant” source of foreign interference, with “sophisticated, widespread and persistent” interference.

The study said Russian disinformation and intimidation campaigns linked to Iran pose a threat to democracy, but officials did not find a strong link to efforts to interfere in Canadian elections.

A group of high-ranking bureaucrats known as the “Panel of Five” was tasked with monitoring foreign interference and, if necessary, warning Canadians if the integrity of the vote was threatened.

In 2019, the panel reported that the interference was “largely directed from China, and to a lesser extent from India and Pakistan.”

Prior to the investigation, Canada had not publicly identified Pakistan as a source of foreign interference.

Documents submitted to the inquiry show that Canada's security intelligence agency believed Pakistani officials “may be seeking to covertly influence and support Canadian politicians of Pakistani origin” in the election, prompting an unspecified “threat mitigation measure” from Ottawa.

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How did they do it?

A top-secret briefing note for the director of CSIS cited several incidents of possible foreign interference in the last two elections.

This shows that Beijing is known to mobilize support for favored candidates, as well as providing donations and other support to their campaigns.

China is also known to target and coerce families using threats and intimidation.

Testimony and survey documents also show that Beijing and New Delhi tried to funnel cash to candidates who, without the candidates' knowledge, were unable to criticize their governments.

The inquiry heard about a disinformation campaign that has been circulating mainly among Chinese speakers on social media sites such as WeChat.

Several intelligence documents indicate that the campaign's goal was to dissuade the Chinese-Canadian community from voting for the Conservatives.

A briefing note from the fall of 2023 linked the campaign to China and said it was “almost” driven by the perception that the conservative platform was anti-China.

Other bodies, including the five-member commission that oversees election threats, have failed to find a clear link between the campaign and state-sponsored interference.

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What was the effect of the interference?

Much is unclear because the threshold for public warning is often so high.

While a five-member commission considered issuing a public warning during the last two elections, bureaucrats ultimately decided that no threat was too great to jeopardize the integrity of the results.

According to Karina Gould, who founded the group when she was minister of democratic institutions, the threshold for going public should have been higher from the outside.

He said issuing too many warnings threatens Canadians' confidence in elections.

A 2023 CSIS briefing note states that state actors can “successfully” carry out foreign intervention in Canada because there are few legal or political consequences.

The director of CSIS told the commission that was true, but he said the actions did not threaten the integrity of the election.

Former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole said a disinformation campaign could have cost her nine seats at the last election.

Intelligence officials disputed that, saying it was difficult to measure the campaign's impact at the ballot box.

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Several politicians spoke of the emotional toll of foreign intervention on themselves and their constituents.

CSIS informed NDP MP Jenny Kwan that it is an “evergreen” target for China. He told the commission that some voters whispered that they feared for themselves and their families if they supported him.

What about the interesting story of former Liberal MP Han Dong?

Much of the testimony and evidence before the commission related to allegations and intelligence related to Toronto MP Han Dong, who resigned from the Liberal House last year after reports in the media that he voluntarily participated in Chinese interference and won his seat in 2019 with Beijing's help.

One of the allegations in the declassified reports is that busloads of international students were forced to vote for his 2019 candidacy using forged documents.

Dong once again denied any knowledge of the allegations in the investigation, but revealed that he solicited support from high school students of Chinese nationality to run in the North Don Valley horse race.

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He said he had not personally seen them arrive by bus to the nomination meeting, but had heard about it.

Dong didn't mention it when asked about it in his initial interview, but told the commission his wife recalled the incident — a comment that haunted him during his testimony.

The inquest also heard Dong discussed with Chinese diplomats Beijing's jailing of Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor.

According to media reports, Dong advised China to delay the release of the two Canadians, although intelligence agencies believe he instead told diplomats that releasing the pair would not make the Conservative Party less critical of the Chinese government.

What did the Prime Minister know?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was warned of “irregularities” in Dong's candidacy during the 2019 election.

He decided not to rule out the nomination because, as far as he understood, the allegations were unproven and there was no indication that Dong knew what was going on.

Over the years, the CSIS director says he has briefed the prime minister on the overall threat landscape related to foreign interference, as well as individual cases of potential interference.

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He warned the commission that Canada lags behind other Five Eyes allies in combating foreign interference and that unless it is deemed an existential threat, Trudeau will remain active.

They said there were some specific allegations that Trudeau and his team had learned from media reports. It involved a scheme involving 11 candidates and hundreds of thousands of dollars in funds imported from China.

What happens next?

The commission is expected to submit a preliminary report by May 3 and final recommendations by the end of the year.

In September, the commission is expected to hold another round of hearings focused on Canada's ability to detect and prevent foreign interference.

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