Housing sector happy with Q1 outlook – Winnipeg Free Press

Local real estate experts are optimistic that Winnipeg's housing market will rebound this year after seeing sales and total dollar volume increase through the end of 2023.

So far, they've been beaten.

A boost in confidence led to a strong first quarter in the Manitoba capital as buyers came to terms with higher interest rates.

The Winnipeg Regional Real Estate Board has released its market analysis for the first three months. Among the most notable figures were an 11 percent increase in single-family home sales in the first quarter (1,682) and a 19 percent year-over-year increase in dollar volume for single-family homes.

The 2,574 MLS sales in Q1 were the fourth-most in a decade, and the $932.7 million in volume was the third-highest since the pandemic years.

“(The numbers) are better than I expected,” said Rena Prefontaine, former president of the Winnipeg Regional Real Estate Board. “I was thinking of a slow increase in sales, maybe five percent growth.

“I think the first quarter gave me more optimism that we've turned that corner from where we were a little bit bearish in late 2022 and most of 2023.”

Winnipeg's 2023 MLS sales of 12,978 were the lowest in five years, while the median price of a single-family home fell from $412,745 to $399,430 in 2022.

The numbers turned in favor of buyers, however, as the Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate to five per cent over the summer, continuing one of its most aggressive rate hike campaigns on record to test the market. .

Since then, the central bank has held rates steady in the last six rounds of decisions — the latest of which came on Wednesday. Now, with the economy and inflation slowing, the Bank of Canada is considering easing monetary policy in the coming months.

At a press conference last week, Gov. Tiff Macklem said a rate cut in June was “within the realm of possibility.”

With that in mind, Prefontaine said there could be some increased demand in the Winnipeg market.

“Honestly, I think that might be what we're seeing. People took their foot off the gas in 2022 (fall), and in 2023 they coasted, and now I feel like people are pushing the game,” he said.

“I think it's like, 'We have to make a move, we don't have to wait too long.'”

Nicole Hako, a Realtor of 12 years with Royal LePage, said the market is already hot.

Last year, a sought-after listing could expect three to five offers, Hako said. Earlier this month, one of his listings fielded 24 offers, while another in Tuxedo (listed at $899,000) sold for $362,000 (no, that's not a typo). The latter is an anomaly, of course, but it paints a clear picture of where the market is and where it might be headed.

“We're seeing it now,” Hako said. “We tell (buyer) clients to be prepared to take $50,000 off the list.

“We're seeing a lot of offers everywhere, it's really hot right now. If it gets even hotter, can we get to $100,000 over list price again? Chances are, because once you get that exposure, buyers seem to do what they need to do to get a home.

“All of us, as realtors, are bracing ourselves for this price drop because all the buyers who are on the sidelines right now are going to come out. This decline will be a signal for many that now is the time to enter the market. We expect further growth in the number of buyers in the market, and subsequently in sales prices.”

The top performing homes in the first quarter were those between $550,000 and $600,000, Hako said. Typically, the most competitive market falls in the $300,000 to $400,000 range.

“That's what we're told, people are accepting and they're coming to terms with the idea of ​​losing their (mortgage) rates. $500,000 (homes) didn't hit the market and people didn't buy much in that market before. But now, what we're seeing is this huge increase in sales, people have recognized that they're going to lose their two per cent rate, but they can't afford to stay in their home anymore – they're going to move up.”

Whether you see an active market as a positive or a negative depends on which side of the coin you fall on. Sellers, Hako says, are resting easy knowing their home values ​​are rising and their equity is safe.

“If you're a buyer,” he said, “you're probably excited because prices are going up.”

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Joshua Frey-Sam
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Joshua Frey-Sam will happily welcome a heated sports debate any day of the week.

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