How did a great draft+1 junior season change Easton Cowan's NHL projection with the Maple Leafs?

I'd like to take you back to the 2023 NHL Draft floor in Nashville, where I stood with my fine contemporaries in the world of scouting and media as the Maple Leafs approached the podium with the 28th overall pick.

“I wouldn't be surprised if it was Easton Cowan,” I said to those around me as Wes Clark, director of amateur scouts in Toronto, stepped up to the microphone. It turns out that even a blind squirrel finds nuts from time to time.

Did I have inside information on the Leafs and Cowen? No. Did I have the inside scoop on Cowen's rapid rise up the draft boards of many teams? Yes.

Many in the scouting world and in the broader hockey media tried to convince Cowan that he was attainable at 28. Actually, it wasn't.

Scouts and those who consistently report on the OHL would have told you that Cowan was one of the best players in last year's playoffs and one of the main reasons London won the Western Conference title. For that reason, he deserved to be a top-40 pick, and if Toronto hadn't pulled the trigger at 28, another team would have taken him in the top-40.

Now I know what you're saying – why did so many independent scouting agencies take Cowan outside of the first two rounds? I can't speak for everyone, but I think it's important for people to understand how these final rosters are put together so that publication deadlines can be determined before the draft.

At McKeen's Hockey, we prepare the roster in early May after the IIHF U18 competition, so that the draft guide can be published in June (editing, formatting, etc. takes a lot of time). The OHL playoffs ended in mid-to-late May. This means that our ranking of Cowen (78th) did not significantly affect his strong performance in the playoffs.

In early June, in discussions with our scouting team and my Ontario scouts (especially Joely Stockl, who has been a fan of Cowen all season at The Hockey News), we decided Cowen was too short and wanted him in. 50 based on his rapid progress at the end of the season and in the playoffs. Would we put him in the first round? No, but it would be much higher.

For a similar example, let me take you back to the 2003 NHL Draft. Brampton Battalion forward Brent Burns (yes, he played center back then) was a bit of an enigma in his first year in the OHL. He looked flashy, but the inconsistency placed him outside the first two rounds by many publications, especially given the strength of the 2003 draft. However, in the playoffs, Burns was completely owned. The current Spurs defenseman helped Brampton reach the second round by scoring a point per game in the postseason.

That completely changed the perception of Burns entering the draft for OHL coverage and some scouts. At the time, Minnesota called him a massive reach when he was drafted 20th overall. However, I can tell you with a high degree of confidence that if “X” (or Twitter) had existed back then, there would have been posts about Burns as a possible first-round pick (like Cowen). in the following season.

Fast forward nine months, and we can safely conclude that many (or all) Leafs fans are on board with the Cowan selection. At the time of the selection, it seemed to be widely distributed by the fan base. Check out the responses to my tweets in the post-draft draft:

Things change in a hurry, especially when the prospect joins one of the greatest heaters in CHL history. Only Alexander Radulov (50 games) continued his long point streak in the CL.

The player we saw in last year's OHL playoffs was the “real” Easton Cowan. With his confidence, he has established himself as one of the OHL's elite players, transforming his projection from a complementary figure in the middle six to a potential all-around difference maker at the scoring line.

Let me tell you some of Cowen's top OHL stats, courtesy of InStat Hockey:

Stat	Cowen's rating
Entering the offensive zone with stickhandling	1st (6.6 per game)
Good luck Dekes	7th (1.91 per game, 76.8% success rate)
Short shot	1 place (0.69 per game)
Chance to score	11th (1.33 per game)
Tap the puck	1st among strikers
Accurate passes	1st among strikers
Expected Goals (xG)	10th (0.48)

Now let's take a look at Cowen's position in this year's OHL Coaches Poll:

• The third best skater in the Western Conference
• Third best defensive tackle in the Western Conference

We hope the above data paints a picture. Cowan has emerged as a dominant threat with the puck on his stick, but he remains a consistent off-puck player thanks to his skating, tenacity and pace. This gives it both a high ceiling and a high floor.

At worst, we're still looking at a potential middle-six, complementary piece, as suggested in the draft last year. He can kill penalties with his speed. He can operate as an F1 and help dictate zone time with his ability to secure possession and apply pressure. He can work the cycle and his quickness opens up space for others in his line.

But based on what I've seen this year, Cowen has dramatically improved his chances of becoming an even bigger contributor. He learned to use his speed and improve his ability to handle the puck in small spaces; There's an old saying, “An arm reaches as far as a foot.” He has become one of the most dominant players in the OHL as he draws defense attention and pressure with his forward mentality. and he has the touch and precision to thread a needle to open up teammates under pressure.

Not only that, but Cowan knows when to pass, limiting turnovers when attacking north/south. He chipped and chased. He changes speed to keep defenses on their toes. He is passionate about working the cycle or winning the battle; he is confident that he can keep his game alive with feet and hands. As he continues to improve his strength and conditioning, Cowan will be a very difficult player to take away from the puck given his high work rate and quickness.

Where will Easton Cowan fit into the Leafs lineup in the future? Unfortunately, I don't have a crystal ball. But when we look at players like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander who have had as much success as Michael Bunting and Zach Hyman, Cowen has many similar tendencies. It always brings a high work rate and can be the straw that stirs the drink. However, I would argue that he is more naturally gifted as a puck handler than Bunting and Hyman, he is a more accurate passer and playmaker, and he is a better skater than Bunting.

Between the strong play of Matthew Knis, the strong scoring ability of Nick Robertson and the versatile nature of Easton Cowan, the future looks bright for the Maple Leafs at the forward position.

Video room

It was a beautiful pass from Cowan, who slid it across the goal to Denver Barkey. I like Cowan's patience as he waited for his teammates to take the mid lane rather than just attacking at speed.

Cowan went from front to back of the net for possession, then found an open man in the slot. He is consistently winning these battles this year.

Another great play from Cowan to help with the goal. Notice how he bursts off the wall and heads toward the net to take down the second defender.

This clip describes why Cowan has been deadly on the penalty kill this year. Even at short notice, he has an attacking mentality. His level of competition is very good, which is reflected in his ability to stay in this game to make passes from his knees.

When open ice on the power play, Cowan never stops taking over the offensive zone. He attacked with speed and stayed behind the initial layer of pressure. A beautiful plate move to Oliver Bonk and the sight of it past the Londoner tied up in the slot is impressive.

Lost on penalties? Does not matter. Cowan hit the puck hard, quickly closing the point to force a turnover and an eventual shorthanded goal.

It was a great play by Cowan in the backfield in the neutral zone, but the speed of his counter attack is really impressive. He caught a Windsor defender flat-footed and created a powerful chance.

A great example of Cowen's hands, which have improved significantly this season. He was stopped by 2023 draft pick Carter George, but that overtime opportunity is solely due to Cowen's speed and skill.

Quotations

“This season has gone beyond what I and everyone else expected. One scout told me during development camp: He's growing and will be for a while. He's still figuring out how to use it to his advantage, but you can see him winning more puck battles and creating more opportunities out of it. We know he's a good penalty killer and brings energy – that alone should make him an interesting option in the middle six. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a few NHL games to start next year at his current pace because he's very smart.”

– Stephen Ellis, Daily Faceoff

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“Selecting Easton Cowan 28th overall in the 2023 draft is starting to pay dividends for the Maple Leafs. Cowen showed his dominance, scoring his first 10 points in the OHL during his season opener (preseason with the Maple Leafs) and participating in the World Junior Championship. His energy, competitive level, intensity and overall skill is on another level this season after starting to show his game late last season and in the playoffs. He has become a consistent and reliable player for the Knights who is used in all situations and can be clutch at certain points. His recent scoring streak is a big reason why general manager Brad Treliving will not consider moving him as part of a trade, as he will be a strong asset for the future of this team.”

– Peter Baracchini, Hockey Writers

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“Easton Cowan began his rookie season in the OHL by working on his fundamentals and providing a 200-foot game. By focusing on the little things first, Cowan was able to be offensive in last year's playoffs, and that has certainly translated into this season. Cowan has all the freedom to focus on his offensive game because he can be relied on in every situation and doesn't give up anything otherwise. Cowen's dramatic improvement each season reflects his trajectory as a top-six supporting player with the Toronto Maple Leafs. He continues to prove that he can make the players around him better and this season he has proven that he can drive on his own and do it at a high level.”

– Joely Stockl, Hockey News

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“It's easy to let the numbers speak for Easton Cowan. One of the biggest surprises in the first round of the 2023 NHL Draft, Cowan's D+1 year saw one of the biggest offensive arcs this season, jumping from 53 points to 94 points — in just 53 games this season. What the numbers don't tell you is his value to this team in all other areas of the game. He has a 200-foot game that rivals the NHL's best prospects, and he plays in all situations for the Knights – using his speed to dominate the puck. He plays with a physical side to the game reminiscent of a Darcy Tucker type and has the possession game of another former Knight in Mitch Marner. Of course, there are areas in his game that he could improve on, including his overall strength, but next season, if he stays in the OHL, I feel like we're going to have a CHL/AHL debate and how to play it. have a change in eligibility. That said, it's easy to see why he was considered untouchable for the Maple Leafs at the trade deadline. It's hard to imagine him not getting a longer look with the Maple Leafs next season.”

– Andrew Forbes, Hockey Writers