The shadow war between Iran and Israel has been exposed. What happens next?

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BEIRUT – Iran's unprecedented attack on Israel signaled a change in attitude in Tehran, which has relied on proxies in the Middle East since the start of the Israel-Hamas war on Sunday morning. All eyes are now on whether Israel will choose to take further military action, and Washington will seek diplomatic measures instead of de-escalating regional tensions.

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Iran said the attack was in response to an airstrike it blamed on Israel that destroyed Iranian consulates in Syria and killed two generals with the paramilitary Revolutionary Guards earlier this month.

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According to Israel, almost all of the more than 300 drones and missiles launched by Iran overnight were shot down by US and UK-backed anti-missile defense systems. Reportedly, the only casualty was an injured girl in southern Israel, and the rocket hit an Israeli airbase, causing minor damage.

Nevertheless, Iran's Revolutionary Guards called the operation a success.

“Iran has managed to strike a balance between openly retaliating against the strike in Damascus and not provoking further Israeli military action that could lead to a wider conflict,” said Mona Yacoubian, vice president of the US Institute of Peace's Middle East and North Africa Center.

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“Both (Iran and Israel) are capable of winning at this point and walking off the cliff, especially since there are no Israeli civilian deaths,” Yacoubyan said.

However, the world was still waiting for the outcome of the Israeli war cabinet meeting on Sunday. Hardliners in Israel have demanded a response, but others have suggested restraint, saying Israel should focus on strengthening budding ties with its Arab counterparts.

“We will build a regional coalition and extract the price from Iran in a way and time that suits us,” said Benny Gantz, a member of the War Cabinet.

According to experts, Iran has sent a message that it is ready to change and intensify the rules of engagement in the shadow war with Israel.

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“This warning says that if Israel breaks the rules, there will be consequences,” said Magnus Ranstorp, a strategic adviser at the Swedish Defense University.

Iran's attack has fueled fears that the war in Gaza could lead to regional tensions.

But Iran insists that it does not seek a full-scale war in the region. Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said in an earlier Twitter post that Iran “does not intend to continue defensive operations at this time” unless attacked.

Iran emphasized that it did not target civilians or “economic zones” but Israeli targets involved in the Damascus offensive.

After Israel launched its offensive against Hamas in Gaza, Iran-backed groups stepped in militarily, while Tehran sat on the sidelines. Lebanon's Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel. Yemeni Houthi rebels have attacked Western ships in the Red Sea. An umbrella group of Iranian-backed Iraqi armed forces has attacked US military positions in Iraq and Syria.

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Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center, said Tehran is now “ready to lift the oath” without relying on proxies.

However, Iran only went so far.

“They had enough warning that it was coming, and I think they knew that (the drones and rockets) would be shot down before they reached Israeli territory,” Yahya said.

He also noted that the recent increased pressure on Israel over its actions in Gaza has now shifted to de-escalation in the region.

Eldad Shavit, who directs the Israel-US research program at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, said further Israeli military action appears to be unpopular with its allies, including the United States.

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White House national security spokesman John Kirby told NBC that President Joe Biden does not want an escalation of the regional conflict or a “broader war” with Iran and that he is “personally working on the diplomatic side.”

Emergency meetings of the G7, an informal gathering of industrialized nations that include the US, Britain and France, and the UN Security Council were held on Sunday.

G7 meeting participants unanimously condemned Iran's attack in a statement, saying “we stand ready to take additional measures now and in response to further destabilization initiatives.”

— Associated Press writers Joseph Federman in Jerusalem, Abby Sewell in Beirut, Amir Vahdat in Tehran and Thomas Adamson in Paris contributed to this report.

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