Calgary sees record annual population growth, job growth expected to slow: report

Calgary has seen record annual population growth, according to the city's report, and expects continued economic growth to outpace Alberta and Canada's GDP growth in 2023, according to the city's spring economic forecast.

As of April 1, Calgary's population is 1,389,200, representing a population increase of 3.0 per cent since April 2022, according to a City of Calgary report released Monday.

According to the city, this is Calgary's largest annual population increase, based on data with an addition of approximately 40,600 people.

Oyin Shillon, the chief economist of the city, made a report. He attributes the growth to the federal government's ambitious immigration policies and plans and the relative level of affordability compared to other major cities in the country.

Last year, the federal Liberal government announced a new immigration plan that would see Canada admit 500,000 immigrants a year by 2025.

He said many people in Canada chose to move to the city.

“If you look at a lot of other big cities in the country and you're thinking about where to move and you're looking for a metropolitan area, Calgary is going to be right there on your list.”

Population growth is expected to continue over the next five years.

“Calgary's population is expected to increase by 108,400 between 2023 and 2028,” the report said.

“The number of primary and pre-school children (ages zero to nine) is expected to reach a projected horizon peak of 162,600 in 2024, before declining to 161,700 by 2028.”

Job and workforce imbalances

The report suggests that this population influx will lead to a steady supply of workers for vacant jobs.

But the city's job creation rate will drop significantly from 7.3 percent in 2022 to 3.1 percent this year.

While the city's report said the decline in job creation was the result of a “shift from hiring to a better match between job seekers and employers,” Mount Royal University economics professor Anupam Das said the problem is more complex. .

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Calgary Annual Net Migration: 2014 to 2023

He believes that one of the biggest drivers of population growth is migration and immigration. However, the arrivals are highly qualified for the available jobs.

“I don't think there is a huge demand for super, highly educated workers in our economy right now. For example, we need workers for warehouses,” said Das.

“When people come to our city, if we can't create a match for those people and create real jobs that we can offer those people, it's not going to help our economy too much.”

City estimates show Calgary will grow by 62 new residents per day over the next few years, adding about 110,000 people by 2027.

Inflation can hinder economic growth

The report also indicates that Alberta's annual inflation rate should gradually decline from 6.4 per cent in 2022 to 3.4 per cent this year. It says the rate of inflation should fall to pre-pandemic levels by 2024, but the rate of decline is not realistic.

While Das sees growth potential for Calgary's economy in the coming years, he said he's not as optimistic as the city's report.

“I am cautiously optimistic for several reasons,” Das said.

“We still have issues with supply chain management and everything, so some of the external issues could cause problems in the near term.”

Factors such as the Ukraine-Russia war could still affect local inflation rates for months or years, Das said.

Annual growth rate of Calgary jobs

According to the report, real GDP growth for the regional economy will lag behind the global economy, but will be strong enough to outpace the provincial, Canadian and US economies in 2023.

The City of Calgary releases its economic outlook reports twice a year, in the spring and fall. This year's spring forecast can be found on the city's website.