Two-thirds of Manitobans surveyed believe crime will increase in community starting in 2020 – Winnipeg Free Press

A new poll shows that most Manitobans believe crime has increased in the past four years, but most of them have not been a victim of crime during that period.

About two-thirds of those surveyed by Research Co believe that crime occurs frequently in their community, and 18 percent said they have been the victim of an incident that required police involvement.

Research Co. based in Vancouver. “The numbers are going to be very different,” president Mario Canseco said of the gap between perception and reality.

A similar survey in 2020 found that 54 percent of respondents believed crime had increased in the past three years, while 31 percent believed they had been victims of crime.

The latest online survey of 600 Manitoba adults was conducted March 29-31. Its margin of error was four percentage points, 19 times out of 20, the Research Co. reported.

Canseco said the proportion of respondents who believe crime is on the rise in Manitoba is higher than in the other five provinces surveyed. BC (54 percent) was second. Saskatchewan (42 percent) ranked fifth.

In each province, since 2020, every fourth respondent has been a victim of crime.

The survey found that about 54 percent of Manitoba respondents fear being victimized “a great deal” or “a fair amount.”

A total of 57 percent said they felt “very safe” or “moderately safe” walking alone in their neighborhood after dark.

“Research consistently shows that members of the public overestimate the proportion of violent crimes committed in Canada,” wrote University of Winnipeg criminologist Professor Kelly Gorkoff. Free press.

“This overestimation may come from sources where they know about the crime.”

Sources include news, social media and documentaries that focus on specific aspects of crime, particularly victimization, he said.

“Few people show that their understanding of crime is based on statistical information,” Gorkoff wrote. “In Manitoba, we've seen a statistically significant increase in crime. Overall, Manitoba is a safe place to live and work.”

In a statement, the Association of Manitoba Municipalities said the survey results are consistent with what its members are saying.

“Public safety and rising crime are top priorities,” said AMM, which has supported bail reform measures, increased police funding and more support for municipal community safety and welfare plans.

A recent poll by the Winnipeg Police Council found that three-quarters of residents believe crime has increased in the city, although 42 per cent said it was different from their neighbourhood.

The latest annual report from the Winnipeg Police Service showed that reported incidents of violent crime were 24 per cent higher than the five-year average in 2022, and property crime reports were up 20 per cent.

According to Gorkoff and Brandon University sociology professor Christopher Schneider, politicians have used fear of crime to vote in court or increase funding for the criminal justice system while reducing funding for crime prevention services.

Gorkoff was referring to Manitoba's previous Progressive Conservative government.

“I would argue that the conservative heritage accounts for this difference in perception of crime,” he wrote. “But I hope Manitobans buy into that rhetoric and adopt a crime-prevention approach that will help Manitobans reduce their fear of crime.”

Research Co. 56 percent of respondents believe drug addiction or mental health issues are factors in crime in their community, followed by gangs and drugs (44 percent), a “failed” justice system (35 percent), and poverty and inequality (34 percent).

Efforts to address the factors that contribute to crime take a lot of time and money, Schneider said, but the “wash, rinse, repeat” cycle of government changes is deceptive.

“New governments come in and say they're tough on crime,” he said.

Last week, NDP Premier Wab Kinew pledged to get tough on crime and its root causes.

Schneider said all proceeds from crime should be invested in areas like mental health or substance abuse services or affordable housing, not law enforcement.

“It could help reduce crime,” he said.

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