Winnipeg real estate market forecast released

Home-hunting Winnipeggers are expected to pay more than they did this time last year, analysts say, when weary buyers are less concerned about the trajectory of interest rates.

Royal LePage's latest home price update and market forecast predicts that the average home in Winnipeg will increase by five per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the same period last year.

According to the forecast, the total price of a home in Winnipeg in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 5.7 percent year-over-year to $390,000. The average price of a single-family detached house also increased. That rose 5.9 percent to $431,000, while the median condo price rose 6.9 percent to $260,000.

Winnipeg was not alone. In the report, 89 percent of regions recorded quarterly price increases in the first three months of the year, typically ahead of the spring real estate season.

Winnipeg broker Michael Freese attributes the gains to once-shunned buyers feeling more confident about the trajectory of interest rates.

“Homes in the mid-range and luxury price points are recording a steady increase in demand, indicating that people who did not have a compelling reason to move last year are now revitalizing their property purchase plans. “The demand for homes in Winnipeg has never gone away – it's just been delayed,” he said in a press release.

New homes were built in a housing development on Ottawa's west side on Thursday, May 6, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

He said the city had a seasonally typical first quarter of 2024 compared to recent years, with market activity picking up heading into the first weeks of spring.

Still, sales were down year-over-year from the regional five-year average.

Demand is more than three times the supply of affordable homes, which Freeze predicts will keep prices on an upward trend for the foreseeable future.

The forecast shows that entry-level properties below the $500,000 mark remain competitive as first-time buyers renew their search for a first home.

He said the second quarter of the year is typically Royal LePage's busiest time, and 2024 is expected to be no different.

“While a potential rate cut will make things easier for buyers, I don't expect it to push demand much higher,” he said.

“Many buyers are done waiting and are adjusting to the current rate environment, continuing their purchase plans regardless of what the Bank of Canada does next.”

Toronto to overtake Vancouver in home prices this year: forecast

In addition, the national aggregate rate is expected to increase by nine percent year-over-year this quarter. This is 5.5 percent higher than the previous forecast.

No wonder Winnipeg homes are a steal compared to Toronto and Vancouver, with a new report showing aggregate home prices in the GTA rose 5.2 per cent to $1.177 million in the first quarter.

Additionally, while Vancouver remains Canada's most expensive market today, Royal LePage predicts that Toronto homes will surpass Vancouver in home prices in the second half of 2024.

Aggregate home prices in Greater Vancouver are projected to increase 3.4 percent year-over-year to $1,238 in the first quarter of 2024.

Other takeaways – Calgary recorded the highest aggregate price growth of the year, up 9.7 per cent in the second quarter to $647,400 in the first quarter.

You can read the full report at Royal LePage.