Drought and heat increase the risk of a repeat of last summer's wildfires

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OTTAWA — Persistent drought and months of above-average temperatures have increased the risk of another record wildfire season, federal ministers said Wednesday as they warned of the urgent need to tackle climate change.

“We can expect the bushfire season to start early, end late and potentially be explosive,” Emergency Preparedness Minister Harjit Sajjan told a news conference on Wednesday.

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The 2023 fire season was Canada's worst on record, with more than 6,600 fires burning more than 15 million hectares, an area almost twice the size of Lake Superior. It forced more than 230,000 people from their homes, including the entire city of Yellowknife, and created unprecedented smog conditions across much of the country and the United States.

Eight firefighters have died fighting the blaze, and Canada expects to spend more than $750 million on disaster relief alone. And that doesn't include the billions of dollars spent fighting the fires in the first place.

This spring's fire danger forecast briefing paper shows conditions are ripe for early and above-normal fire danger from Quebec to British Columbia in April and May.

The forecast is based on a warmer-than-normal winter with less snow and widespread drought, particularly in the Prairies. April, May, and June are also more likely to experience above-normal temperatures. Western Canada, eastern Ontario and western Quebec currently face the highest risk.

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The briefing notes that rainfall forecasts are not very reliable, so warnings are based on current conditions and may change if more rain falls than expected this spring.

The Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center lists 65 fires already burning, mostly in BC, Alberta and the Northwest Territories. More than half are fires that started in 2023, burned underground throughout the winter, and have since resurfaced. Most of the fires are now under control.

Michael Norton, director general of Natural Resources Canada's Northern Forestry Centre, says human activity is usually the main factor in fire risk in the spring.

Fire prevention is critical, and most spring fires are human-caused, including accidental burning, campfires, fireworks, and heat from off-road vehicles igniting grass or other debris on the ground.

Lightning becomes the main source of wildfires in the summer, and lightning becomes more frequent.

70 percent of fires between January and May 2023 were caused by humans, compared to less than 20 percent of fires that started in June, July and August.

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Low snowpack across much of Canada is one of the main reasons for the high risks this spring. In British Columbia, April snowpack is at a record low 67 per cent, said Jonathan Boyd, hydrologist with the BC River Prediction Centre.

“Typically, droughts and wildfires go hand in hand, so it's not going to be a great season,” Boyd said.

“But it still depends on the weather conditions. This year's spring weather will be even worse.”

Sajan said Canada and the provinces and territories have been working for months to prepare for a bad fire season this year and will be ready.

That includes more equipment and trained firefighters, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said. Ottawa now has agreements with 11 of the 13 provinces and territories to supply $256 million worth of firefighting equipment, including trucks, drones and aircraft.

Wilkinson also said the 2022 pledge to train 1,000 firefighters over five years could see that increase by the end of 2024. Some of this training includes urban firefighters because they need extra training to fight fires in cities and towns.

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On Wednesday, Sajjan said the government is also responding to the need for more work on deck by doubling the tax credit for volunteer firefighters from $3,000 to $6,000, mainly as a recruitment and retention tool.

Ken McMullen, president of the Canadian Firefighters Association, said bosses have requested a $10,000 loan, but it's a good start.

“While this credit will greatly benefit volunteer firefighters, it has a ripple effect on the entire fire service,” McMullen said in an interview. “Even though it's not where we want it to be, we recognize it as a positive step in the right direction.”

NDP MP Don Davies, who has long supported raising the credit to $10,000, agrees the government's move is a good start but not enough. Davis said Canada has lost 30,000 volunteer firefighters and search and rescue personnel since 2016.

“We have to do everything we can to ensure that we support hiring,” he said.

Davis also said Canada should invest in a national firefighting team with 400 personnel and a fleet of aircraft to support the provinces.

With the coming fire season expected to be as bad as 2023, if not worse, “the federal government needs to step up its game,” Davis said.

With files from Lindsay Armstrong in Halifax and Brianna Charlebois in Vancouver.

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