Expected UFAs and potential trades based on price

Part 2 of my Trade Targets series takes a look at a few pending UFA veterans who are receiving interest around the league, as well as some potentially available bargain box options.

In case you missed them, here are previous editions of my 2024 trade deadline analysis:

Pending-UFA options based on price

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Chris Tanev (RHD)

Age: 34 years old
2023-24 season: 1 goal, 9 points in 48 games
Contract status: Pending UFA

What do you like?

In terms of checking every box in the short term, Tanev fits the bill. He's a great penalty killer, he can take on top players and he's got a right hand. He would be the best partner Morgan Rielly has ever played in Toronto (which is a story in itself), and Tanev would be well-prepared for this style of partner after partnering with the likes of Quinn Hughes in the past.

The Leafs' defense starts to make sense with Tanev in the fold. They could keep the Benoit-McCabe pairing, followed by the Brody-Lillegren pairing together, and then re-sign Tanev to some extent next season (and possibly for a few years). After the season, they could retool the setup around losing Brody and deciding the future of pending RFA Liljegren.

It would make a lot of sense from a current personnel standpoint, though it looks like the Leafs will need to add a serious needle mover to the mix soon, even if Tanev folds.

Tanev wouldn't attack the defense, but he's a good pass-first defender who moves the puck well and helps clean up the Leafs. Hopefully there will be the added benefit of taking Brody down and thus getting better performances from him in weaker matchups.

What are the concerns?

Calgary is asking for a second-round pick, but since the Leafs haven't had a second-rounder in each of the next three years, they want the Leafs' first-rounder. Now, part of me (just my opinion here) thinks this is a trick; Plenty of teams around the league are interested in Tanev, and if Price were a second-rounder (and potentially a middling prospect), surely someone would pull the trigger by now. For reference, the Jets just traded their first round pick for Sean Monahan.

A first-round pick is a big price to pay, and given the Leafs' lack of picks and moves over the past few years, I think it's a tough pill to swallow for an aging veteran. If this is the final price, I'd prefer the younger option.

While Tanev has been more durable than he's been given credit for (he's played in every game in two of the last three seasons and dressed in 48 of 51 games so far this season), his body has endured a lot of wear and tear, and it's doubtful he'll catch up anytime soon.

Also, Tanev would have to re-sign to be useful to the Leafs, and while you'd like to think the kid from Toronto will sign a team-friendly deal, it's unclear what his next contract will be at this point.

Adam Henrique (Left S/W)

Age: 34 years old
2023-24 season: 15 goals, 33 points in 49 games
Contract status: Pending UFA

What do you like?

Henrique offers some of the things packed with the mind of a veteran. He can play center or wing, kill the penalty kill, he's been to the Stanley Cup Finals before, and he can still be offensive. AWhen the Leafs acquired Simon Benoit in the summer, we pointed out that the Ducks are a scary team and it's hard to tell how much the environment in Anaheim will affect their numbers.

This type of chess move will round out the Leafs' top nine forward group with the return of Kalle Jarnkrok, especially as the likes of Nick Robertson and Pontus Holmberg are beginning to prove themselves as solid contributors.

What are the concerns?

I can make it short: Enrique's price will be high because there will be tons of bidders.

He would definitely help the Leafs, but his position isn't the primary need they're trying to address, so it'd be hard to see why they'd need to use some of their remaining bullets on this type of addition unless it's something bigger (or something else they need in the form of another deal somehow). stole the player).

Henrique may be a pure rental, which is the type of thing the Leafs are trying to avoid, but I really like the player.

Potential deals

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Alexander Carrier (RHD)

Age: 27 years old
2023-24 season: 4 goals, 14 points in 46 games
Contract status: Pending UFA

What do you like?

I think a lot of people look at Carrier's size (5'11) and ignore him without knowing his game. Based on Brad Treliving's history, the Leafs GM may also overlook him because of his size. The carrier isn't overly tough or physical, but he does get physical in plays and even has tackles against 6'7 Logan Stanley on his resume.

Carrier had an exceptional rookie season in 2021-22, playing mostly with Matthias Ekholm, scoring 30 points and outscoring opponents 55-32 at 5v5 while also having plenty of puck success. The good luck has dried up in recent seasons, but his possession numbers have still trended steadily in the right direction.

The Quebec native plays the puck well, shooting just over 50 percent for the Predators this season. He's also a consistent penalty killer in Nashville, playing just over two minutes per game in his sixth-ranked unit last season (the Preds have struggled with shorthanded this season, and he's in the second unit again).

Carrier has yet to hit 200 games in the league, he's right-handed, he's still 27 years old, and his game is really starting to take shape this year. It helped establish one of the most stable pairs of predators.

Ultimately, he's a 4-5 defenseman, but the Leafs lack quality throughout their defense. Acquiring a quality right-hander at a discount to bolster the top six isn't as sexy as high-profile names, but adding a good player would help a team that lacks quality depth at the position. Look no further than Benoit, for example, who, while not on the best pairing, will help this Leafs team in particular.

In 2020, the Jets traded a third-round pick for Dylan DeMelo, who was in a similar situation to Carrier during his career in Ottawa. After the Jets signed him to a cheap deal, DeMelo has been excellent for a Winnipeg team that has made the playoffs just one season since his arrival (and they're slated to do so again this season).

If the Leafs can acquire this type of player at this price — even if they don't miss out on high-end options — it could be a quiet nice addition that helps the unit trend in the right direction. Of course, Carrier would have to re-sign it to make it profitable.

What are the concerns?

It is fair to doubt how good the carrier is. He'll make $2.5 million and probably needs a move up, so if he's around #4, that price isn't good. If he's a third-pair defenseman, the Leafs could look elsewhere for a deal (see Benoit, Simon).

The carrier's most productive season came with a high-end partner in Ekholm, but he's currently putting together a strong year with non-high-end quarterback Jeremy Lauzon. Carrier is averaging 18:09 per game — more fifth defenseman than fourth based on TOI, but that doesn't mean he can't get more minutes going forward.

Oskar Sundqvist (RHW)

Age: 29 years old
2023-24 season: 6 goals, 18 points in 49 games
Contract status: Pending UFA

What do you like?

Sundqvist would provide depth for a team that lacks quality depth and for a head coach who laments the lack of players he can rely on in defensive situations.

Sundqvist is a big (6'3), strong forechecking forward who has some offensive flair and is quietly effective on the penalty kill (he leads the Blues with 16 this season). He was a regular in the Blues' 2019 Cup squad and had nine points in 25 playoff games, so he has Cup pedigree.

A healthy Leafs team could run a Holmberg – Kampf – Sundqvist fourth line that would be better than any of the Gregor/Reeves/McMann combinations they've been running for a long time. He's not a difference maker, but he fills a small hole at the lowest price for the team, and he's a veteran who has won league titles before.

Sundqvist was a fourth-round pick at the deadline last season. The Leafs have three fifth-round picks in 2024 and two in 2025, though I'm not offering much this year.

What are the concerns?

Sundqvist isn't a true playmaker of any kind, so it's unclear how well he'll mesh with Kampf in a checking role. If it doesn't mix with Kampf, you don't need to buy it.

Sundqvist should not play higher than the fourth line on a regular basis. Kampf needs someone to help move the puck up the ice (I think Holmberg has flashed potential in that regard), so that's a very important concern.

Taylor Raddish (RHW)

Age: 25 years old
2023-24 season: 5 goals, 11 points in 46 games
Contract status: Pending RFA

What do you like?

Raddish scored 20 goals last season, but is struggling on just 6.4 percent shooting on a terrible Blackhawks team. He's open for business and a potential acquisition for a Chicago team with seven forwards under contract for next season, not counting any lineup-breaking prospects or six RFA forwards who have each played 24+ games this season. .

Raddish is 6'3, and while he's not a physical power forward (he doesn't fight in the league), he's effective at getting to the net, checking the goaltender, and finding the puck tight. The old rule is that power forwards usually take longer to develop; It might be a reasonable gamble on a big forward like Raddish, who has reached the prime age that can be put together for him under optimal conditions.

What are the concerns?

Raddish is cheap and has scored quite a few goals in the league, it wouldn't be the end of the world if he didn't. After all, he is a pending RFA.

Buying costs can be difficult. When Ruddish finished last season, he had one year left on his contract at an AAV under $800K, a team-friendly deal that boosted his asking price. Now in the offseason and pending RFAs, how much will he drop in price? Chicago won't necessarily give him away, but if the Leafs are going to add, why not consider an older player?

How much upside matters with Raddish is also up for debate. He played with Jonathan Toews last season, but is he a third-string scorer or someone who can gain confidence and move up the lineup? Can he produce even when he doesn't get a constant top unit power playtime? Raddish has seven power play goals and 15 power play points in his career season. We are, to some extent, seeing this problem right now with Tyler Bertuzzi's performance.

Note: I think the likes of Adam Larsson, Jamie Oleksiak, Yanni Gurd, Mackenzie Vigar, and Boone Jenner would be good additions, but I doubt the likelihood of any of them actually being traded. I have not written about them here.