Trudeau's Liberals face tough fights in GTA, BC: Nanos forecasts

According to the latest polling and seat forecast data from Nanos Research, the federal Conservatives continue to lead the Liberals, who are at risk of losing large parts of Metro Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area, which they won in the last federal election.

If the election were held today, the Conservatives would take 40 percent of the ballots and have a 15-point lead over the Liberals, who would get 24.7 percent of the vote.

This is a 6.3 percentage point increase for the Conservatives compared to the 2021 election results, while the Liberals are down 7.9 percentage points from three years ago.

“The bottom line is, if the election were held today … we're still talking about a conservative majority government,” Nick Nanos, chairman of Nanos Research and official polling for CTV News, said on a recent episode of Trend Line.

The NDP is at 20.6 per cent, up slightly from 2.8 per cent. Now they are separated from the Liberals by four percentage points. The Bloc Québécois is at 7.4 percent, unchanged from 2021. At the same time, the Greens and the People's Party support the ballot with 5.1 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.

(Nanos Research)

Elect Prime Minister

When it comes to party leaders, Nanos said 35.1 percent of respondents chose Conservative leader Pierre Polievre as prime minister.

In second place is current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, with 20.8 percent choosing him as Prime Minister.

In addition, 13.8 percent chose NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, 4.3 percent chose Green Party co-leader Elizabeth May and 2.2 percent chose Maxime Bernier of the People's Party.

Seat projections

On the Nanos seat projection maps below, the current seat projections are on the left. The 2021 election results are on the right.

Greater Toronto Area

(Nanos Research)

Toronto and its suburbs were Trudeau's strongest base of support for the Liberals. In the last election, the Liberals won every seat in the city of Toronto, as well as every seat in many suburbs such as Mississauga, Brampton, Pickering and Oakville.

But according to Nanos' seat projections, many of these rides are at risk of going bust, especially in the 905 area outside of Toronto. Even in downtown Toronto, which Nanos calls “ground zero for the Liberal Party of Canada,” the data shows the NDP's potential for a seat.

A failure in Toronto would be like an “emergency” for the Liberals, Nanos said.

“When you go outside of Toronto, you'll find that some of those other names — the Mississaugas, the Bramptons — some of the primary challengers will be the Conservatives. – he added.

Ottawa

(Nanos Research)

Similarly, Ottawa suburbs currently held by the Liberals will face tough competition from the Conservatives.

“There are a couple of horses that could swing in Ottawa, and they're a little closer than the Liberals have seen before,” Nanos said.

British Columbia

(Nanos Research)

The Lower Mainland in British Columbia was another strong base of support for the Liberals in 2021. In the last election, with the exception of a few ridings in East Vancouver and Burnaby, the vast majority of ridings in the area went to the Liberals. Outer suburban ridings won by NDP and Conservatives.

But as in the Toronto area, the Liberals are in tougher battles than both the Conservatives and the NDP in Metro Vancouver.

“You can see that Vancouver is another big battleground between the Liberals, the New Democrats and the Conservatives,” Nanos said.

Conservatives in B.C. can achieve considerable success in other areas. In 2021, most of Vancouver Island and northwestern BC went NDP, but Nanos data suggests the riding could be conservative if the election were held today.

Montreal

(Nanos Research)

In 2021, the Liberals won almost all ridings on the island of Montreal and near Laval, while the Bloc Québécois held many off-island ridings.

Nanos predictions show that if the election were held today, we would get the same result.

“There's not much change on the island of Montreal. Maybe we'll see the Liberals, raise, or the NDP will have to take a seat from the Liberals and the Bloc and counter attack a little bit,” Nanos said. .

Sea

(Nanos Research)

Support for the Liberals also seems to wear down the Mariners.

In the last election, the Liberals won PEI, as well as large parts of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Now, Nanos predicts that those liberal seats may be won by the Conservatives, or it's too close to call.

Shediac, NB, a traditional Liberal stronghold held by Public Safety Minister Dominique LeBlanc since 2000, is now too close to call, according to Nanos.

“Dominique LeBlanc is ahead of us, but he's seven percentage points short of the Nanos simulation,” Nanos said.

“(LeBlanc) has a good track record. And you know what? If he has to look over his shoulder and try to make sure he's going to fight in Shediac, that's not good news for liberals in the area.”

Watch the full episode of Trend Line in the video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in the audio player below or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode will be released on Wednesday, February 20.