Jake Guentzel to the Oilers? Oddsmaker favors Edmonton

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The story of the trade of star winger Jake Guentzel with the Pittsburgh Penguins is interesting and painful.

Edmonton makes quite a bit of sense as a trading location. Insiders said getting a top 6 winger is a priority for the Oilers. Guentzel is definitely a Top 6 winger. In fact, he is a top-class winger.

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Now, according to Pennsylvania online betting site PennStakes.com, the Edmonton Oilers are the team to acquire Guentzel.

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The same gambling site says the most likely outcome is for Guentzel to stay with the Penguins, but sees Edmonton as the slight favorite to acquire the player if he is traded, ahead of Colorado and Vegas.

My perception

1. Guentzel is a big name in hockey, a star offensive winger in his prime, scoring 50 points in 47 games this year. He is 29 years old and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. He also has a 12-team no-trade list in his current contract. Edmonton might be on that list. If so, Guentzel should have agreed to come here. The thought of hosting the Stanley Cup might be enough of a temptation to do it, but you never know.

2. Guentzel is a career penguin. It's hard to imagine a team can't find a way to retire a player in a city that's still flashing through the final years of the Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang era of the Stanley Cup. Was the team that acquired 33-year-old Erik Karlsson last summer suddenly a seller at the trade deadline? Hmmm.

Of course, Guentzel could be traded to Edmonton, go on this adventure, and then re-sign with Pittsburgh in the summer. It's hard to imagine the Oilers could come up with the cap space to sign him. It's impossible, no, but it's hard to imagine.

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3. Guentzel is No. 15 on TSN's trade target list. Daily Faceoff listed Guentzel at No. 25 on its list and reports: “Guentzel is not in the game yet…GM Kyle Dubas has made it a point to see if they can get in on the runway before this gets old. Even if Sidney Crosby turns back the clock, it looks like they'll miss the second spring, leaving Dubas with no choice but to return as much as he can for the elite scoring winger. Guentzel immediately becomes the most expensive rental trade chip available before the deadline, which is certainly worth keeping an eye on.”

4. Pittsburgh is five points out of the unseeded spot, even though Detroit has three games to play and Philadelphia has four. The next few weeks will decide Pitt's fate. You have to run. If not, can they leave Guentzel? Like I said, it was the talk in Pittsburgh. The Athletic's Josh Yoshe reports: “In a perfect world, the Penguins would love to give Jake Guentzel a new contract. It all depends on Guentzel's willingness to make the Penguins a team-friendly deal. (GM Kyle) Dubas acknowledges Guentzel's greatness… As I've been told, Dubas isn't afraid to trade Guentzel, even if Crosby and Sullivan want to keep him in Pittsburgh. If Dubas believes a new contract isn't in the cards, I think he'll trade Hentzel before letting him walk free.”

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Matt Wensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports: Dubas, who said he could talk to Guentzel's agent during the recent All-Star break, didn't tip his hand when it came to the star winger. But if he decides to put Guentzel on the trading block in the coming weeks, Guentzel could be the best and most sought-after player on the market…Given his scoring, sneaky playmaking ability and big-play reputation, he's a first-round pick for the Penguins and possibly as well as a premium perspective. Or maybe a few NHL players under contract.”

5. I can see Edmonton trading a first round pick for Guentzel, plus a top prospect, but I doubt Edmonton will pull the trigger if that top prospect is Philip Broberg. That would be too much for GM Ken Holland to pay the rent. But is there any other prospect in the Oilers system? Or several of them? Yes, I've seen that happen.

6. Surely other teams will be in the market for Guentzel, right? A team in contention for the Cup but with more cap space to sign Guentzel long-term this summer would be more motivated to make a bid than the Oilers. Guentzel may prefer to go to a city where he intends to sign a long-term deal.

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Guentzel also has a $6 million cap hit, more than the Oilers can handle. For the deal to work, Pittsburgh would have to get another pick from Edmonton to eat up 50 percent of that contract. Thus, the Oilers shot far.

But they've been a long shot to recover from a terrible start to the season, haven't they? With Connor McDavid on the team and the Oilers emerging as a strong contender for the Cup, difficult things suddenly become possible.

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